A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
